Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Giants TB @ NYG

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

4-6  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

2-8  |  Home

7
Key Game
Rakeem Nunez-Roches
KEY GAME

Rakeem Nunez-Roches

#56 | Defensive Tackle
@
Kayvon Thibodeaux
KEY GAME

Kayvon Thibodeaux

#5 | Linebacker
Player
Rakeem Nunez-Roches None-None
Kayvon Thibodeaux None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
73%
📊
GIANTS
27%
BUCCANEERS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.8 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 GiantsNYG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

83.9%

Giants Cover

16.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -13.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

13.0%

TB By 7-13 points

19.0%

NYG By 1-6 points

8.0%

NYG By 7-13 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26.08
TAMPA BAY
12.23
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
23
TAMPA BAY
20
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.8
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2024 TB @ NYG 30 - 7
Nov 22, 2021 NYG @ TB 10 - 30
Nov 2, 2020 TB @ NYG 25 - 23
Sep 22, 2019 NYG @ TB 32 - 31
Nov 18, 2018 TB @ NYG 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Tampa Bay: 210.9 vs New York: 177.3
Turnovers (L5) +78.0% more
New York: 1.7 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.2% more
New York: 145.5 vs Tampa Bay: 119.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 26.1 30
NYG Score 12.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 21.0 17.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 177.3 / 210.9 169.0 / 294.0
Rushing Yards 145.5 / 119.1 76.0 / 157.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 322.8 / 330.0 245.0 / 451.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.3 4.4 / 7.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
TB
NYG
TB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
ATS
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
100% 3-0-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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