NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTSNE
3-8 | Road
15
MIAMI
DOLPHINSMIA
4-6 | Home
34
Key Game
KEY GAME
Julian Hill
#80 | Tight End@
KEY GAME
Storm Duck
#29 | Cornerback| Player | |
|---|---|
| Julian Hill | None-None |
| Storm Duck | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
36%
DOLPHINS
64%
PATRIOTS
--
DOLPHINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NE By 1-6 points
13.8%
NE By 7-13 points
10.8%
MIA By 1-6 points
16.8%
MIA By 7-13 points
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New England
13.42
NEW ENGLAND
Miami
18.99
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New England
24
NEW ENGLAND
Miami
17
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dolphins
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Patriots
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dolphins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
B
Sim
Patriots (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 32.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
MIA @ NE
10 - 38
Sep 14, 2025
NE @ MIA
33 - 27
Nov 24, 2024
NE @ MIA
15 - 34
Oct 6, 2024
MIA @ NE
15 - 10
Oct 29, 2023
NE @ MIA
17 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+15.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
New England: 0.4
Turnovers (L5)
+43.8% more
New England: 1.6
vs
Miami: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NE Score
13.4
15
MIA Score
19.0
34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.3 / 20.1
23.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards
215.7 / 204.8
308.0 / 182.0
Rushing Yards
108.7 / 117.6
65.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.33 / 0.21
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards
324.4 / 322.4
373.0 / 268.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
5.3 / 5.0
5.7 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
MIA
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -13.8
ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
Advantage
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
MIA
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -13.8
ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -10.0
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NE
MIA
NE
ML
100%
4-0
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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