Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Commanders DAL @ WSH

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-7  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

7-4  |  Home

26
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
20%
📊
COMMANDERS
80%
COWBOYS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.6 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

77.6%

Commanders Cover

22.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

14.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

WSH By 1-6 points

10.3%

WSH By 7-13 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31.13
DALLAS
20.53
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
17
DALLAS
31
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
20% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.6
C
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.7
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ DAL 20 - 37
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ WSH 30 - 23
Oct 19, 2025 WSH @ DAL 22 - 44
Jan 5, 2025 WSH @ DAL 23 - 19
Nov 24, 2024 DAL @ WSH 34 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +73.7% more
Dallas: 2.5 vs Washington: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.6% more
Dallas: 229.5 vs Washington: 202.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.7% more
Washington: 114.8 vs Dallas: 84.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +13.9% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Dallas: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 31.1 34
WSH Score 20.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 19.6 19.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 202.9 / 229.5 267.0 / 241.0
Rushing Yards 114.8 / 84.0 145.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 317.7 / 313.5 412.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.5 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.5 6.1 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DAL
WSH
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Looks to Build Momentum in Road Test at Penn State
si 2 hours, 3 minutes ago
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 2 hours, 10 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 2 hours, 10 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 8 hours, 6 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 8 hours, 8 minutes ago