Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Raiders DEN @ LV

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

6-5  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 4:05 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-8  |  Home

19
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
Dylan Laube
KEY GAME

Dylan Laube

#23 | Running Back
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
Dylan Laube None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
83%
📊
RAIDERS
17%
BRONCOS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

53.8%

Raiders Cover

46.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.8%

DEN By 7-13 points

16.4%

LV By 1-6 points

16.0%

LV By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.08
DENVER
18.76
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
17
DENVER
20
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 DEN @ LV 24 - 17
Nov 6, 2025 LV @ DEN 7 - 10
Nov 24, 2024 DEN @ LV 29 - 19
Oct 6, 2024 LV @ DEN 18 - 34
Jan 7, 2024 DEN @ LV 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.4% more
Denver: 109.6 vs Las Vegas: 67.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +18.2% more
Denver: 5.6 vs Las Vegas: 4.6
Total Yards (L5) +17.6% more
Denver: 341.3 vs Las Vegas: 281.1
Turnovers (L5) +116.0% more
Las Vegas: 1.7 vs Denver: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 20.1 29
LV Score 18.8 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 19.7 21.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 213.6 / 231.7 300.0 / 262.0
Rushing Yards 67.5 / 109.6 69.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 281.1 / 341.3 369.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.6 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
DEN
LV
DEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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