Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Chargers BAL @ LAC

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

7-4  |  Road

30
FINAL
Mon, Nov 25 • 8:15 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

7-3  |  Home

23
Key Game
Nnamdi Madubuike
KEY GAME

Nnamdi Madubuike

#92 | Defensive Tackle
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Nnamdi Madubuike None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
43%
📊
CHARGERS
57%
RAVENS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

75.6%

Chargers Cover

24.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

15.4%

BAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

LAC By 1-6 points

10.9%

LAC By 7-13 points

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
33.02
BALTIMORE
23.29
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
23
BALTIMORE
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.7
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2024 BAL @ LAC 30 - 23
Nov 26, 2023 BAL @ LAC 20 - 10
Oct 17, 2021 LAC @ BAL 6 - 34
Jan 6, 2019 LAC @ BAL 23 - 17
Dec 22, 2018 BAL @ LAC 22 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.1% more
Baltimore: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.4% more
Baltimore: 6.8 vs Los Angeles: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 33.0 30
LAC Score 23.3 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 20.5 19.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 237.1 / 251.0 202.0 / 177.0
Rushing Yards 128.5 / 136.2 83.0 / 212.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 365.6 / 387.1 285.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 6.8 4.8 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
BAL
LAC
BAL
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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