CHICAGO
BEARSCHI
4-7 | Road
20
DETROIT
LIONSDET
10-1 | Home
23
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME
Maurice Alexander
#13 | Wide Receiver@
KEY GAME
Jack Fox
#3 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Maurice Alexander | None-None |
| Jack Fox | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
5%
LIONS
95%
BEARS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
CHI By 1-6 points
15.1%
CHI By 7-13 points
12.7%
DET By 1-6 points
17.0%
DET By 7-13 points
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
25.4
CHICAGO
Detroit
28.7
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Chicago
27
CHICAGO
Detroit
20
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Lions
Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
C
Sim
Bears (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 54.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
DET @ CHI
19 - 16
Sep 14, 2025
CHI @ DET
21 - 52
Dec 22, 2024
DET @ CHI
34 - 17
Nov 28, 2024
CHI @ DET
20 - 23
Dec 10, 2023
DET @ CHI
13 - 28
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+36.4% more
Detroit: 25.7
vs
Chicago: 18.8
Turnovers (L5)
+32.0% more
Detroit: 0.8
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5)
+30.6% more
Detroit: 147.9
vs
Chicago: 113.2
Yards Per Play (L5)
+27.8% more
Detroit: 6.2
vs
Chicago: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
25.4
20
DET Score
28.7
23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
25.7 / 18.8
25.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards
271.9 / 216.7
211.0 / 223.0
Rushing Yards
147.9 / 113.2
194.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.36 / 0.47
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards
419.8 / 329.9
405.0 / 301.0
Turnovers
0.8 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
6.2 / 4.9
5.9 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: +9.9
DET
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: +9.9
DET
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CHI
DET
CHI
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
33%
1-2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1-1
100%
4-0
TTL
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
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