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PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

8-3  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

4-7  |  Home

38
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
82%
📊
BENGALS
18%
STEELERS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.6 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

79.6%

Bengals Cover

20.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

14.4%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.6%

CIN By 1-6 points

9.6%

CIN By 7-13 points

6.2%

AI Model Projected Score
32.16
PITTSBURGH
20.56
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
23
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.6
B
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CIN @ PIT 27 - 30
Nov 16, 2025 CIN @ PIT 12 - 34
Oct 16, 2025 PIT @ CIN 31 - 33
Jan 4, 2025 CIN @ PIT 19 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 PIT @ CIN 44 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.5% more
Pittsburgh: 132.3 vs Cincinnati: 90.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +45.6% more
Cincinnati: 309.2 vs Pittsburgh: 212.4
First Downs (L5) +23.7% more
Cincinnati: 23.0 vs Pittsburgh: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 32.2 44
CIN Score 20.6 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 18.6 25.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 309.2 / 212.4 282.0 / 410.0
Rushing Yards 90.6 / 132.3 93.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 399.8 / 344.7 375.0 / 520.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.1 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.1 6.6 / 7.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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