Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Saints LAR @ NO

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

5-6  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 4:05 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

4-7  |  Home

14
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Chase Young
KEY GAME

Chase Young

#99 | Defensive End
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Chase Young None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
59%
📊
SAINTS
41%
RAMS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New Orleans)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

48.7%

Saints Cover

51.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

LAR By 1-6 points

16.3%

LAR By 7-13 points

15.0%

NO By 1-6 points

16.6%

NO By 7-13 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20.1
LOS ANGELES
20.57
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
LOS ANGELES
27
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ LAR 10 - 34
Dec 1, 2024 LAR @ NO 21 - 14
Dec 21, 2023 NO @ LAR 22 - 30
Nov 20, 2022 LAR @ NO 20 - 27
Sep 15, 2019 NO @ LAR 9 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.3% more
New Orleans: 152.4 vs Los Angeles: 93.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
New Orleans: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +17.4% more
New Orleans: 395.7 vs Los Angeles: 337.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.8% more
New Orleans: 6.6 vs Los Angeles: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 20.1 21
NO Score 20.6 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 21.3 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 243.3 / 243.8 184.0 / 166.0
Rushing Yards 152.4 / 93.3 143.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.33 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 395.7 / 337.1 327.0 / 322.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.6 / 5.7 4.8 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LAR
NO
LAR
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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