Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Bills SF @ BUF

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

5-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 8:20 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

9-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Brandon Codrington
KEY GAME

Brandon Codrington

#-- | Cornerback
@
Dorian Williams
KEY GAME

Dorian Williams

#42 | Linebacker
Player
Brandon Codrington None-None
Dorian Williams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
16%
📊
BILLS
84%
49ERS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.8
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.8 points (Buffalo)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

24.1%

Bills Cover

75.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -9.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

SF By 1-6 points

10.9%

SF By 7-13 points

7.4%

BUF By 1-6 points

15.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.36
SAN FRANCISCO
33.19
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
23
SAN FRANCISCO
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.8
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2024 SF @ BUF 10 - 35
Dec 7, 2020 BUF @ SF 34 - 24
Oct 16, 2016 SF @ BUF 16 - 45
Oct 7, 2012 BUF @ SF 3 - 45
Nov 30, 2008 SF @ BUF 10 - 3
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +28.0% more
Buffalo: 22.9 vs San Francisco: 17.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Buffalo: 256.6 vs San Francisco: 220.2
Total Yards (L5) +14.6% more
Buffalo: 373.9 vs San Francisco: 326.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Buffalo: 117.3 vs San Francisco: 106.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 23.4 10
BUF Score 33.2 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 17.9 20.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 256.6 / 220.2 152.0 / 86.0
Rushing Yards 117.3 / 106.2 220.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 373.9 / 326.4 372.0 / 239.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.8 6.6 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
SF
BUF
SF
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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