Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Dolphins NYJ @ MIA

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

3-9  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Dec 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

5-7  |  Home

32
Key Game
Jason Sanders
KEY GAME

Jason Sanders

#19 | Place kicker
@
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
Player
Jason Sanders None-None
Chop Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
32%
📊
DOLPHINS
68%
JETS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Miami)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

34.1%

Dolphins Cover

65.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

NYJ By 1-6 points

13.7%

NYJ By 7-13 points

10.6%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.8%

MIA By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
14.55
NEW YORK
20.28
MIAMI
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.7
B
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 34 - 10
Sep 29, 2025 NYJ @ MIA 21 - 27
Jan 5, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 20 - 32
Dec 8, 2024 NYJ @ MIA 26 - 32
Dec 17, 2023 NYJ @ MIA 0 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +56.3% more
Miami: 276.3 vs New York: 176.8
First Downs (L5) +35.5% more
Miami: 21.6 vs New York: 15.9
Total Yards (L5) +32.3% more
Miami: 352.1 vs New York: 266.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +18.9% more
Miami: 5.5 vs New York: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 14.6 26
MIA Score 20.3 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 15.9 28.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 276.3 / 176.8 331.0 / 319.0
Rushing Yards 75.7 / 89.3 44.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.11 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 352.1 / 266.0 375.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.7 5.7 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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