Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Buccaneers LV @ TB

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-10  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Dec 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

6-6  |  Home

28
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
17%
📊
BUCCANEERS
83%
RAIDERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

36.2%

Buccaneers Cover

63.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

LV By 1-6 points

14.2%

LV By 7-13 points

11.3%

TB By 1-6 points

16.9%

TB By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19.42
LAS VEGAS
24.38
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 8, 2024 LV @ TB 13 - 28
Oct 25, 2020 TB @ LV 45 - 20
Oct 30, 2016 LV @ TB 30 - 24
Nov 4, 2012 TB @ LV 42 - 32
Dec 28, 2008 LV @ TB 31 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +98.2% more
Tampa Bay: 166.5 vs Las Vegas: 84.0
First Downs (L5) +20.7% more
Tampa Bay: 23.7 vs Las Vegas: 19.6
Total Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Tampa Bay: 395.2 vs Las Vegas: 351.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.1% more
Tampa Bay: 5.9 vs Las Vegas: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 19.4 13
TB Score 24.4 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 19.6 21.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 228.7 / 267.6 268.0 / 195.0
Rushing Yards 166.5 / 84.0 152.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 395.2 / 351.6 420.0 / 286.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.6 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.5 7.1 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
LV
TB
LV
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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