Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Chiefs LAC @ KC

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

8-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Dec 8 • 8:20 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

11-1  |  Home

19
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
JK Scott None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
15%
📊
CHIEFS
85%
CHARGERS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas City)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

41.4%

Chiefs Cover

58.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LAC By 1-6 points

15.2%

LAC By 7-13 points

12.9%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19.84
LOS ANGELES
22.87
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
31
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 LAC @ KC 16 - 13
Sep 5, 2025 KC @ LAC 21 - 27
Dec 8, 2024 LAC @ KC 17 - 19
Sep 29, 2024 KC @ LAC 17 - 10
Jan 7, 2024 KC @ LAC 13 - 12
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +29.1% more
Kansas City: 21.5 vs Los Angeles: 16.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Kansas City: 237.1 vs Los Angeles: 193.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +16.7% more
Kansas City: 336.3 vs Los Angeles: 288.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 19.8 17
KC Score 22.9 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 16.6 20.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 237.1 / 193.9 202.0 / 194.0
Rushing Yards 99.2 / 94.2 96.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 336.3 / 288.2 298.0 / 288.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.1 4.6 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAC
KC
LAC
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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