Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Saints WSH @ NO

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

8-5  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

5-8  |  Home

19
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Bryan Bresee
KEY GAME

Bryan Bresee

#90 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Tress Way None-None
Bryan Bresee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
72%
📊
SAINTS
28%
COMMANDERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New Orleans)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

41.1%

Saints Cover

58.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

WSH By 1-6 points

15.2%

WSH By 7-13 points

12.8%

NO By 1-6 points

17.0%

NO By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
23
WASHINGTON
26.15
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
28% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
C
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2024 WSH @ NO 20 - 19
Oct 10, 2021 NO @ WSH 33 - 22
Oct 8, 2018 WSH @ NO 19 - 43
Nov 19, 2017 WSH @ NO 31 - 34
Nov 15, 2015 NO @ WSH 14 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.8% more
Washington: 1.3 vs New Orleans: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.4% more
Washington: 172.3 vs New Orleans: 130.2
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Washington: 22.8 vs New Orleans: 18.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.7% more
Washington: 387.1 vs New Orleans: 345.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 23.0 20
NO Score 26.2 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 22.8 17.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 215.7 / 214.8 176.0 / 189.0
Rushing Yards 130.2 / 172.3 69.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 345.9 / 387.1 245.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.6 4.8 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
WSH
NO
WSH
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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