Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Browns KC @ CLE

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

12-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-10  |  Home

7
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
98%
📊
BROWNS
2%
CHIEFS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

57.5%

Browns Cover

42.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.9%

KC By 7-13 points

17.3%

CLE By 1-6 points

15.4%

CLE By 7-13 points

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
22.16
KANSAS CITY
19.5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
KANSAS CITY
27
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
98% Win Prob
A
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2024 KC @ CLE 21 - 7
Sep 12, 2021 CLE @ KC 29 - 33
Jan 17, 2021 CLE @ KC 17 - 22
Nov 4, 2018 KC @ CLE 37 - 21
Dec 27, 2015 CLE @ KC 13 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.9% more
Kansas City: 98.1 vs Cleveland: 87.5
Turnovers (L5) +209.0% more
Cleveland: 2.5 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Cleveland: 285.0 vs Kansas City: 225.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 22.2 21
CLE Score 19.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 21.0 16.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 285.0 / 225.4 127.0 / 179.0
Rushing Yards 87.5 / 98.1 139.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 372.4 / 323.5 266.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 0.4 6.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 4.9 4.4 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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