Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cowboys @ Panthers DAL @ CAR

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

5-8  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

3-10  |  Home

14
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Demani Richardson

#36 | Safety
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Demani Richardson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
68%
📊
PANTHERS
32%
COWBOYS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 20%
Under 0 80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

70.1%

Panthers Cover

29.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

16.3%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.4%

CAR By 1-6 points

12.6%

CAR By 7-13 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.89
DALLAS
14.52
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
13
DALLAS
34
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
C
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 DAL @ CAR 27 - 30
Dec 15, 2024 DAL @ CAR 30 - 14
Nov 19, 2023 DAL @ CAR 33 - 10
Oct 3, 2021 CAR @ DAL 28 - 36
Sep 9, 2018 DAL @ CAR 8 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.8% more
Dallas: 1.6 vs Carolina: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Dallas: 117.5 vs Carolina: 105.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 21.9 30
CAR Score 14.5 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 19.0 16.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 208.4 / 202.4 175.0 / 199.0
Rushing Yards 105.9 / 117.5 60.0 / 211.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 314.3 / 319.9 235.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.6 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.0 4.7 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
DAL
CAR
DAL
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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