Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Texans MIA @ HOU

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

6-7  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

8-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Chop Robinson None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
35%
📊
TEXANS
65%
DOLPHINS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

60.6%

Texans Cover

39.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIA By 7-13 points

17.9%

HOU By 1-6 points

14.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

12.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.97
MIAMI
19.2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
31
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 15, 2024 MIA @ HOU 12 - 20
Nov 27, 2022 HOU @ MIA 15 - 30
Nov 7, 2021 HOU @ MIA 9 - 17
Oct 25, 2018 MIA @ HOU 23 - 42
Oct 25, 2015 HOU @ MIA 26 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Miami: 294.6 vs Houston: 214.4
First Downs (L5) +24.5% more
Miami: 23.7 vs Houston: 17.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Miami: 359.7 vs Houston: 313.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.2% more
Miami: 5.6 vs Houston: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 23.0 12
HOU Score 19.2 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 23.7 12.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 214.4 / 294.6 104.0 / 172.0
Rushing Yards 99.3 / 65.2 77.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 313.7 / 359.7 181.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.6 3.6 / 3.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIA
HOU
MIA
ML
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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