Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Lions BUF @ DET

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

10-3  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 4:25 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

12-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Tyler Bass None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
22%
📊
LIONS
78%
BILLS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Detroit)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

48.9%

Lions Cover

51.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

BUF By 1-6 points

16.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

15.1%

DET By 1-6 points

16.6%

DET By 7-13 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
30.07
BUFFALO
30.47
DETROIT
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
78% Win Prob
B
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 DET @ BUF 31 - 41
Dec 15, 2024 BUF @ DET 48 - 42
Nov 24, 2022 BUF @ DET 28 - 25
Dec 16, 2018 DET @ BUF 13 - 14
Oct 5, 2014 BUF @ DET 17 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Detroit: 0.9 vs Buffalo: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Detroit: 26.0 vs Buffalo: 23.0
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs Buffalo: 0.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.1% more
Buffalo: 6.7 vs Detroit: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 30.1 48
DET Score 30.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.0 / 23.0 30.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 261.1 / 261.8 473.0 / 362.0
Rushing Yards 145.9 / 135.4 48.0 / 197.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.55
Total Yards 406.9 / 397.2 521.0 / 559.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 6.7 6.8 / 8.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BUF
DET
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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