Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Broncos IND @ DEN

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

6-7  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

8-5  |  Home

31
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
35%
📊
BRONCOS
65%
COLTS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Denver)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

38.6%

Broncos Cover

61.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

IND By 1-6 points

14.7%

IND By 7-13 points

12.0%

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
21.36
INDIANAPOLIS
25.43
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
INDIANAPOLIS
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 DEN @ IND 28 - 29
Dec 15, 2024 IND @ DEN 13 - 31
Oct 6, 2022 IND @ DEN 12 - 9
Oct 27, 2019 DEN @ IND 13 - 15
Dec 14, 2017 DEN @ IND 25 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +54.6% more
Denver: 259.2 vs Indianapolis: 167.6
Total Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Denver: 357.3 vs Indianapolis: 285.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.5% more
Denver: 5.8 vs Indianapolis: 5.0
First Downs (L5) +14.1% more
Denver: 19.3 vs Indianapolis: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 21.4 13
DEN Score 25.4 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 16.9 13.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 259.2 / 167.6 121.0 / 161.0
Rushing Yards 98.1 / 117.4 72.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 357.3 / 285.0 193.0 / 310.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.5 3.0 / 5.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.0 3.2 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
IND
DEN
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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