Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Raiders ATL @ LV

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

6-7  |  Road

15
FINAL
Mon, Dec 16 • 8:30 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-11  |  Home

9
Key Game
Divine Deablo
KEY GAME

Divine Deablo

#0 | Linebacker
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Divine Deablo None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
83%
📊
RAIDERS
18%
FALCONS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Las Vegas)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

40.1%

Raiders Cover

59.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.0%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.5%

LV By 1-6 points

17.0%

LV By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
16.16
ATLANTA
19.68
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
24
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Loss
18% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2024 ATL @ LV 15 - 9
Nov 29, 2020 LV @ ATL 6 - 43
Sep 18, 2016 ATL @ LV 35 - 28
Oct 14, 2012 LV @ ATL 20 - 23
Nov 2, 2008 ATL @ LV 24 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.5% more
Atlanta: 128.0 vs Las Vegas: 86.3
Turnovers (L5) +28.0% more
Atlanta: 2.4 vs Las Vegas: 1.7
Total Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Atlanta: 395.1 vs Las Vegas: 329.7
First Downs (L5) +16.3% more
Atlanta: 22.0 vs Las Vegas: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 16.2 15
LV Score 19.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 22.0 16.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 243.4 / 267.1 184.0 / 93.0
Rushing Yards 86.3 / 128.0 65.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 329.7 / 395.1 249.0 / 261.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.4 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.8 3.8 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
ATL
LV
ATL
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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