Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Chargers DEN @ LAC

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

9-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Thu, Dec 19 • 8:15 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

8-6  |  Home

34
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
57%
📊
CHARGERS
43%
BRONCOS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

59.4%

Chargers Cover

40.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

17.7%

LAC By 1-6 points

15.1%

LAC By 7-13 points

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27.98
DENVER
24.65
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
C
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 LAC @ DEN 3 - 19
Sep 21, 2025 DEN @ LAC 20 - 23
Dec 19, 2024 DEN @ LAC 27 - 34
Oct 13, 2024 LAC @ DEN 23 - 16
Dec 31, 2023 LAC @ DEN 9 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.2% more
Denver: 1.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Denver: 89.4 vs Los Angeles: 73.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Denver: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Denver: 302.5 vs Los Angeles: 260.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 28.0 27
LAC Score 24.7 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 17.2 23.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 187.3 / 213.1 263.0 / 245.0
Rushing Yards 73.4 / 89.4 117.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 260.7 / 302.5 380.0 / 355.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 4.9 6.2 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
DEN
LAC
DEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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