Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Chiefs HOU @ KC

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

9-5  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

13-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Justin Watson

#84 | Wide Receiver
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Justin Watson None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
12%
📊
CHIEFS
88%
TEXANS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Kansas City)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

40.4%

Chiefs Cover

59.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

HOU By 1-6 points

15.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

12.6%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.18
HOUSTON
25.6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
31
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
C
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 HOU @ KC 20 - 10
Jan 18, 2025 HOU @ KC 14 - 23
Dec 21, 2024 HOU @ KC 19 - 27
Dec 18, 2022 KC @ HOU 30 - 24
Sep 10, 2020 HOU @ KC 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +25.5% more
Kansas City: 20.0 vs Houston: 15.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Kansas City: 109.4 vs Houston: 91.8
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Kansas City: 319.4 vs Houston: 269.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Kansas City: 209.9 vs Houston: 177.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 22.2 19
KC Score 25.6 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 15.9 25.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 209.9 / 177.6 251.0 / 227.0
Rushing Yards 109.4 / 91.8 124.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 319.4 / 269.5 375.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 4.6 5.4 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
HOU
KC
HOU
ML
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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