Home / NFL Projections NFL / Giants @ Falcons NYG @ ATL

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

2-12  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

7-7  |  Home

34
Key Game
Darnell Mooney
KEY GAME

Darnell Mooney

#17 | Wide Receiver
@
DeAngelo Malone
KEY GAME

DeAngelo Malone

#50 | Linebacker
Player
Darnell Mooney None-None
DeAngelo Malone None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
14%
📊
FALCONS
86%
GIANTS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Atlanta)
GiantsNYG (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

45.2%

Falcons Cover

54.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ATL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

NYG By 1-6 points

15.9%

NYG By 7-13 points

14.0%

ATL By 1-6 points

16.8%

ATL By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
12.45
NEW YORK
14.15
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
17
NEW YORK
23
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Win
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
B
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2024 NYG @ ATL 7 - 34
Sep 26, 2021 ATL @ NYG 17 - 14
Oct 22, 2018 NYG @ ATL 20 - 23
Sep 20, 2015 ATL @ NYG 24 - 20
Oct 5, 2014 ATL @ NYG 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.3% more
Atlanta: 1.9 vs New York: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.2% more
Atlanta: 141.3 vs New York: 96.7
Total Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Atlanta: 350.4 vs New York: 275.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +25.2% more
Atlanta: 5.4 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYG Score 12.5 7
ATL Score 14.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 18.3 22.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 209.1 / 178.8 202.0 / 189.0
Rushing Yards 141.3 / 96.7 127.0 / 45.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.57 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 350.4 / 275.5 329.0 / 234.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 4.3 5.1 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYG
ATL
NYG
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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