Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Bengals CLE @ CIN

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-11  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

6-8  |  Home

24
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
27%
📊
BENGALS
73%
BROWNS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Cincinnati)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

46.1%

Bengals Cover

53.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CLE By 1-6 points

16.0%

CLE By 7-13 points

14.3%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.8%

CIN By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.45
CLEVELAND
24.82
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
23
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
C
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 CLE @ CIN 20 - 18
Sep 7, 2025 CIN @ CLE 17 - 16
Dec 22, 2024 CLE @ CIN 6 - 24
Oct 20, 2024 CIN @ CLE 21 - 14
Jan 7, 2024 CLE @ CIN 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
Cincinnati: 302.8 vs Cleveland: 232.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +22.8% more
Cincinnati: 6.1 vs Cleveland: 5.0
First Downs (L5) +20.9% more
Cincinnati: 23.6 vs Cleveland: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 23.5 6
CIN Score 24.8 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 19.5 21.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 302.8 / 232.3 210.0 / 125.0
Rushing Yards 90.7 / 104.7 116.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 393.6 / 337.0 326.0 / 273.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 3.6 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.0 5.8 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CLE
CIN
CLE
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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