Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Raiders JAX @ LV

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

3-11  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-12  |  Home

19
Key Game
Jakobi Meyers
KEY GAME

Jakobi Meyers

#3 | Wide Receiver
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Jakobi Meyers None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
62%
📊
RAIDERS
38%
JAGUARS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Las Vegas)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

41.4%

Raiders Cover

58.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

JAX By 1-6 points

15.2%

JAX By 7-13 points

12.9%

LV By 1-6 points

17.0%

LV By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
12.03
JACKSONVILLE
15.07
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
27
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raiders Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 JAX @ LV 30 - 29
Dec 22, 2024 JAX @ LV 14 - 19
Nov 6, 2022 LV @ JAX 20 - 27
Dec 15, 2019 JAX @ LV 20 - 16
Oct 23, 2016 LV @ JAX 33 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.3% more
Las Vegas: 2.1 vs Jacksonville: 1.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.4% more
Jacksonville: 96.0 vs Las Vegas: 79.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Jacksonville: 0.4 vs Las Vegas: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.0% more
Jacksonville: 19.3 vs Las Vegas: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 12.0 14
LV Score 15.1 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 19.3 21.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 223.6 / 231.6 245.0 / 236.0
Rushing Yards 79.2 / 96.0 69.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 302.8 / 327.5 314.0 / 308.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.1 4.7 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
JAX
LV
JAX
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Eagles Receiver Dontayvion Wicks Added to Injury Report with Ham…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 5 hours, 42 minutes ago
Commanders' Chig Okonkwo Not Fading Away Yet Despite Early Seaso…
yahoo 18 hours, 7 minutes ago
Eagles' Injury Woes Mount: 11 Players Listed as Team Prepares fo…
yahoo 23 hours, 53 minutes ago
Raiders Fall Short Against Chiefs, But Kubiak's Squad Emerges as…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago