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SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

6-8  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 4:25 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

6-8  |  Home

29
Key Game
Jacob Cowing
KEY GAME

Jacob Cowing

#4 | Wide Receiver
@
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
Player
Jacob Cowing None-None
Chop Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
50%
📊
DOLPHINS
50%
49ERS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

63.5%

Dolphins Cover

36.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

16.9%

SF By 7-13 points

18.5%

MIA By 1-6 points

14.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.08
SAN FRANCISCO
18.25
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
SAN FRANCISCO
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIA @ SF 13 - 35
Dec 22, 2024 SF @ MIA 17 - 29
Dec 4, 2022 MIA @ SF 17 - 33
Oct 11, 2020 MIA @ SF 43 - 17
Nov 27, 2016 SF @ MIA 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.7% more
San Francisco: 104.2 vs Miami: 60.8
First Downs (L5) +35.6% more
Miami: 21.8 vs San Francisco: 16.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +32.1% more
Miami: 253.7 vs San Francisco: 192.0
Turnovers (L5) +15.8% more
Miami: 1.8 vs San Francisco: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 23.1 17
MIA Score 18.3 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 16.1 22.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 253.7 / 192.0 215.0 / 293.0
Rushing Yards 60.8 / 104.2 166.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 314.5 / 296.2 381.0 / 374.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.3 6.0 / 6.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SF
MIA
SF
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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