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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

8-6  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Dec 22 • 8:20 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

6-8  |  Home

26
Key Game
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Chase McLaughlin None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
64%
📊
COWBOYS
36%
BUCCANEERS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.2 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

64.6%

Cowboys Cover

35.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

16.8%

TB By 7-13 points

18.7%

DAL By 1-6 points

14.0%

DAL By 7-13 points

11.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27.87
TAMPA BAY
22.64
DALLAS
Simulated Score
23
TAMPA BAY
27
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.2
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 22, 2024 TB @ DAL 24 - 26
Jan 16, 2023 DAL @ TB 31 - 14
Sep 11, 2022 TB @ DAL 19 - 3
Sep 9, 2021 DAL @ TB 29 - 31
Dec 23, 2018 TB @ DAL 20 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.6% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9 vs Dallas: 1.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.2% more
Tampa Bay: 6.7 vs Dallas: 5.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.2% more
Tampa Bay: 255.5 vs Dallas: 201.3
Total Yards (L5) +20.0% more
Tampa Bay: 437.7 vs Dallas: 349.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 27.9 24
DAL Score 22.6 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 23.2 15.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 201.3 / 255.5 286.0 / 276.0
Rushing Yards 148.7 / 182.1 31.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 349.9 / 437.7 317.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 6.7 5.7 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TB
DAL
TB
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
67% 2-1-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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