Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Packers NO @ GB

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

5-9  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Dec 23 • 8:15 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

10-4  |  Home

34
Key Game
Colby Wooden
KEY GAME

Colby Wooden

#50 | Defensive Tackle
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Colby Wooden None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
18%
📊
PACKERS
82%
SAINTS --
PACKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New Orleans)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 PackersGB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

58.4%

Packers Cover

41.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-6 points

17.0%

NO By 7-13 points

17.4%

GB By 1-6 points

15.3%

GB By 7-13 points

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27.52
NEW ORLEANS
24.56
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
24
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
18% Win Prob
D
Sim Packers Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Saints (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 23, 2024 NO @ GB 0 - 34
Sep 24, 2023 NO @ GB 17 - 18
Sep 12, 2021 GB @ NO 3 - 38
Sep 27, 2020 GB @ NO 37 - 30
Oct 22, 2017 NO @ GB 26 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +22.1% more
Green Bay: 6.4 vs New Orleans: 5.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Green Bay: 127.9 vs New Orleans: 109.8
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Green Bay: 354.4 vs New Orleans: 312.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Green Bay: 226.5 vs New Orleans: 202.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 27.5 0
GB Score 24.6 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 17.8 24.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 226.5 / 202.5 216.0 / 129.0
Rushing Yards 127.9 / 109.8 188.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 354.4 / 312.2 404.0 / 196.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.4 / 5.2 5.9 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
GB Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
NO
GB
NO
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-3-1
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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