Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Steelers KC @ PIT

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

14-1  |  Road

29
FINAL
Wed, Dec 25 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

10-5  |  Home

10
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
87%
📊
STEELERS
13%
CHIEFS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

68.8%

Steelers Cover

31.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.5%

KC By 7-13 points

19.3%

PIT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
28.92
KANSAS CITY
22.04
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
17
KANSAS CITY
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.9
C
Sim Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 25, 2024 KC @ PIT 29 - 10
Jan 16, 2022 PIT @ KC 21 - 42
Dec 26, 2021 PIT @ KC 10 - 36
Sep 16, 2018 KC @ PIT 42 - 37
Oct 15, 2017 PIT @ KC 19 - 13
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +20.5% more
Kansas City: 21.7 vs Pittsburgh: 17.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Kansas City: 223.6 vs Pittsburgh: 194.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Kansas City: 337.9 vs Pittsburgh: 300.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 28.9 29
PIT Score 22.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 21.7 23.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 194.0 / 223.6 162.0 / 320.0
Rushing Yards 106.2 / 114.3 202.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 300.2 / 337.9 364.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.9 5.0 / 6.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
KC
PIT
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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