Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Bengals DEN @ CIN

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

9-6  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Dec 28 • 4:30 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

7-8  |  Home

30
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
63%
📊
BENGALS
37%
BRONCOS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Cincinnati)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

33.3%

Bengals Cover

66.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

DEN By 1-6 points

13.5%

DEN By 7-13 points

10.4%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
28.78
DENVER
34.82
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
23
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 63.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 29, 2025 CIN @ DEN 3 - 28
Dec 28, 2024 DEN @ CIN 24 - 30
Dec 19, 2021 CIN @ DEN 15 - 10
Dec 2, 2018 DEN @ CIN 24 - 10
Nov 19, 2017 CIN @ DEN 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.7% more
Cincinnati: 1.8 vs Denver: 1.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.5% more
Cincinnati: 271.9 vs Denver: 223.8
First Downs (L5) +20.9% more
Cincinnati: 22.8 vs Denver: 18.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.1% more
Cincinnati: 6.0 vs Denver: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 28.8 24
CIN Score 34.8 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 18.8 34.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 271.9 / 223.8 384.0 / 206.0
Rushing Yards 99.2 / 96.3 115.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 371.1 / 320.0 499.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 5.2 5.9 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
DEN
CIN
DEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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