Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Saints LV @ NO

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

3-12  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

5-10  |  Home

10
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Bryan Bresee
KEY GAME

Bryan Bresee

#90 | Defensive Tackle
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Bryan Bresee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
33%
📊
SAINTS
67%
RAIDERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (New Orleans)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

23.9%

Saints Cover

76.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

LV By 1-6 points

10.8%

LV By 7-13 points

7.3%

NO By 1-6 points

15.3%

NO By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
10.25
LAS VEGAS
20.19
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.9
B
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LV @ NO 35 - 27
Dec 29, 2024 LV @ NO 25 - 10
Oct 30, 2022 LV @ NO 0 - 24
Sep 21, 2020 NO @ LV 24 - 34
Sep 11, 2016 LV @ NO 35 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.0% more
New Orleans: 95.5 vs Las Vegas: 75.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Las Vegas: 230.7 vs New Orleans: 178.0
Turnovers (L5) +12.7% more
Las Vegas: 1.4 vs New Orleans: 1.2
First Downs (L5) +11.6% more
Las Vegas: 18.7 vs New Orleans: 16.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 10.3 25
NO Score 20.2 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 18.7 13.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 178.0 / 230.7 188.0 / 232.0
Rushing Yards 95.5 / 75.8 81.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.1 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 273.5 / 306.6 269.0 / 388.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 4.7 5.1 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LV
NO
LV
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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