Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Browns MIA @ CLE

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

7-8  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 4:05 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-12  |  Home

3
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Cameron Goode

#53 | Linebacker
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Cameron Goode None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
78%
📊
BROWNS
22%
DOLPHINS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

66.8%

Browns Cover

33.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -6.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.0%

CLE By 1-6 points

13.5%

CLE By 7-13 points

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.55
MIAMI
15.45
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
27
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Win
78% Win Prob
B
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.1
C
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 MIA @ CLE 6 - 31
Dec 29, 2024 MIA @ CLE 20 - 3
Nov 13, 2022 CLE @ MIA 17 - 39
Nov 24, 2019 MIA @ CLE 24 - 41
Sep 25, 2016 CLE @ MIA 24 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.4% more
Miami: 240.8 vs Cleveland: 196.5
First Downs (L5) +13.0% more
Miami: 21.9 vs Cleveland: 19.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.4% more
Miami: 5.3 vs Cleveland: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +193.2% more
Cleveland: 3.4 vs Miami: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 21.6 20
CLE Score 15.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 21.9 18.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 196.5 / 240.8 162.0 / 206.0
Rushing Yards 119.1 / 95.9 114.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.41 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 315.6 / 336.7 276.0 / 280.0
Turnovers 3.4 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.3 3.6 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIA
CLE
MIA
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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