Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Vikings GB @ MIN

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

11-4  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 4:25 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

13-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
30%
📊
VIKINGS
70%
PACKERS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

51.8%

Vikings Cover

48.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

16.6%

GB By 7-13 points

15.8%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.3%

MIN By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
33.2
GREEN BAY
32.58
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
GREEN BAY
27
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Packers Loss
30% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Packers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 GB @ MIN 22 - 39
Jan 4, 2026 GB @ MIN 3 - 16
Nov 23, 2025 MIN @ GB 6 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 GB @ MIN 25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 MIN @ GB 31 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.9% more
Green Bay: 148.0 vs Minnesota: 99.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.7% more
Green Bay: 6.2 vs Minnesota: 5.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Green Bay: 370.9 vs Minnesota: 339.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 33.2 25
MIN Score 32.6 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 21.2 26.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 240.3 / 223.0 372.0 / 167.0
Rushing Yards 99.2 / 148.0 69.0 / 104.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 339.5 / 370.9 441.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 6.2 6.3 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GB
MIN
GB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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