Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Commanders ATL @ WSH

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

8-7  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 8:20 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

10-5  |  Home

30
Key Game
Olamide Zaccheaus
KEY GAME

Olamide Zaccheaus

#14 | Wide Receiver
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Olamide Zaccheaus None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
36%
📊
COMMANDERS
64%
FALCONS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Washington)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

29.5%

Commanders Cover

70.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSH -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

ATL By 1-6 points

12.5%

ATL By 7-13 points

9.2%

WSH By 1-6 points

16.3%

WSH By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
19.19
ATLANTA
26.72
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
23
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commanders Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 WSH @ ATL 27 - 34
Dec 29, 2024 ATL @ WSH 24 - 30
Oct 15, 2023 WSH @ ATL 24 - 16
Nov 27, 2022 ATL @ WSH 13 - 19
Oct 3, 2021 WSH @ ATL 34 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Washington: 2.2 vs Atlanta: 1.6
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Washington: 22.9 vs Atlanta: 20.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 19.2 24
WSH Score 26.7 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 20.2 29.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 222.5 / 206.7 196.0 / 211.0
Rushing Yards 144.7 / 136.5 216.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 367.2 / 343.3 412.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.3 5.4 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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