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DETROIT

LIONSDET

13-2  |  Road

40
FINAL
Mon, Dec 30 • 8:15 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

6-9  |  Home

34
Key Game
Joshua Dobbs
KEY GAME

Joshua Dobbs

#11 | Quarterback
@
Brayden Willis
KEY GAME

Brayden Willis

#9 | Tight End
Player
Joshua Dobbs None-None
Brayden Willis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
91%
📊
49ERS
9%
LIONS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (San Francisco)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

46.6%

49ers Cover

53.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

DET By 1-6 points

16.0%

DET By 7-13 points

14.4%

SF By 1-6 points

16.7%

SF By 7-13 points

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24.95
DETROIT
26.16
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
30
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Loss
9% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2024 DET @ SF 40 - 34
Jan 28, 2024 DET @ SF 31 - 34
Sep 12, 2021 SF @ DET 41 - 33
Sep 16, 2018 DET @ SF 27 - 30
Dec 27, 2015 SF @ DET 17 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Detroit: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +36.1% more
Detroit: 27.2 vs San Francisco: 17.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.8% more
Detroit: 330.8 vs San Francisco: 225.7
Total Yards (L5) +29.2% more
Detroit: 455.0 vs San Francisco: 322.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 25.0 40
SF Score 26.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 27.2 29.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 225.7 / 330.8 400.0 / 287.0
Rushing Yards 96.5 / 124.2 75.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 322.2 / 455.0 475.0 / 439.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 6.5 7.9 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
DET
SF
DET
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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