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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

8-8  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Jan 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

10-6  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
38%
📊
STEELERS
63%
BENGALS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Pittsburgh)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

36.4%

Steelers Cover

63.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CIN By 1-6 points

14.2%

CIN By 7-13 points

11.4%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
25.15
CINCINNATI
30.01
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
CINCINNATI
24
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CIN @ PIT 27 - 30
Nov 16, 2025 CIN @ PIT 12 - 34
Oct 16, 2025 PIT @ CIN 31 - 33
Jan 4, 2025 CIN @ PIT 19 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 PIT @ CIN 44 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.3% more
Pittsburgh: 138.1 vs Cincinnati: 104.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +40.7% more
Cincinnati: 309.3 vs Pittsburgh: 183.3
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
Cincinnati: 26.5 vs Pittsburgh: 19.1
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Cincinnati: 413.7 vs Pittsburgh: 321.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 25.2 19
PIT Score 30.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 26.5 16.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 183.3 / 309.3 119.0 / 246.0
Rushing Yards 138.1 / 104.4 74.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 321.5 / 413.7 193.0 / 314.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.0 3.3 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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