Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Cowboys WSH @ DAL

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

11-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 1:00 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

7-9  |  Home

19
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
74%
📊
COWBOYS
26%
COMMANDERS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 85%
Under 0 15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.6 points (Dallas)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

26.9%

Cowboys Cover

73.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DAL -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

WSH By 1-6 points

11.7%

WSH By 7-13 points

8.3%

DAL By 1-6 points

15.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.82
WASHINGTON
28.46
DALLAS
Simulated Score
31
WASHINGTON
17
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
26% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.6
B
Sim Commanders (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.3
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ DAL 20 - 37
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ WSH 30 - 23
Oct 19, 2025 WSH @ DAL 22 - 44
Jan 5, 2025 WSH @ DAL 23 - 19
Nov 24, 2024 DAL @ WSH 34 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.6% more
Washington: 168.5 vs Dallas: 115.3
First Downs (L5) +28.4% more
Washington: 24.9 vs Dallas: 17.8
Total Yards (L5) +17.5% more
Washington: 382.1 vs Dallas: 315.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Washington: 0.5 vs Dallas: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 19.8 23
DAL Score 28.5 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 24.9 23.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 200.0 / 213.7 228.0 / 156.0
Rushing Yards 115.3 / 168.5 150.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 315.3 / 382.1 378.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.4 5.0 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WSH
DAL
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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