Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Patriots BUF @ NE

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

13-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-13  |  Home

23
Key Game
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Tyler Bass None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
95%
📊
PATRIOTS
5%
BILLS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 95%
Under 0 5%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.8
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.8 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

71.2%

Patriots Cover

28.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -7.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

16.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.5%

NE By 1-6 points

12.3%

NE By 7-13 points

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
30.72
BUFFALO
22.88
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
13
BUFFALO
27
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.8
C
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.6
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 NE @ BUF 29 - 26
Dec 14, 2025 BUF @ NE 35 - 31
Oct 5, 2025 NE @ BUF 23 - 20
Jan 5, 2025 BUF @ NE 16 - 23
Dec 22, 2024 NE @ BUF 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.9% more
Buffalo: 248.7 vs New England: 174.3
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Buffalo: 388.5 vs New England: 292.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +20.6% more
Buffalo: 6.3 vs New England: 5.0
First Downs (L5) +20.1% more
Buffalo: 22.8 vs New England: 18.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 30.7 16
NE Score 22.9 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 22.8 19.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 174.3 / 248.7 232.0 / 129.0
Rushing Yards 118.1 / 139.9 77.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 292.4 / 388.5 309.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.3 5.1 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
BUF
NE
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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