Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Buccaneers NO @ TB

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

5-11  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

9-7  |  Home

27
Key Game
Trey Palmer
KEY GAME

Trey Palmer

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
Trey Palmer None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
26%
📊
BUCCANEERS
74%
SAINTS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Tampa Bay)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

29.6%

Buccaneers Cover

70.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

NO By 1-6 points

12.5%

NO By 7-13 points

9.2%

TB By 1-6 points

16.3%

TB By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.65
NEW ORLEANS
25.16
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
74% Win Prob
B
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
C
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 NO @ TB 24 - 20
Oct 26, 2025 TB @ NO 23 - 3
Jan 5, 2025 NO @ TB 19 - 27
Oct 13, 2024 TB @ NO 51 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 NO @ TB 23 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +96.3% more
Tampa Bay: 178.1 vs New Orleans: 90.7
First Downs (L5) +74.8% more
Tampa Bay: 26.9 vs New Orleans: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +72.5% more
Tampa Bay: 469.3 vs New Orleans: 272.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +60.6% more
Tampa Bay: 291.2 vs New Orleans: 181.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 17.7 19
TB Score 25.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.9 / 15.4 20.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 291.2 / 181.3 216.0 / 228.0
Rushing Yards 178.1 / 90.7 179.0 / 64.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 469.3 / 272.0 395.0 / 292.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.8 / 4.9 6.2 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NO
TB
NO
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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