Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Broncos KC @ DEN

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

15-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

9-7  |  Home

38
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
92%
📊
BRONCOS
8%
CHIEFS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Denver)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

46.8%

Broncos Cover

53.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

KC By 1-6 points

16.1%

KC By 7-13 points

14.5%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
28.44
KANSAS CITY
29.58
DENVER
Simulated Score
17
KANSAS CITY
31
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
8% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.1
A
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 DEN @ KC 10 - 31
Dec 25, 2025 DEN @ KC 20 - 13
Nov 16, 2025 KC @ DEN 19 - 22
Jan 5, 2025 KC @ DEN 0 - 38
Nov 10, 2024 DEN @ KC 14 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +94.0% more
Denver: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Kansas City: 255.8 vs Denver: 217.8
First Downs (L5) +10.6% more
Kansas City: 21.1 vs Denver: 18.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.0% more
Kansas City: 354.9 vs Denver: 323.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 28.4 0
DEN Score 29.6 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 21.1 29.0 / 5.0
Net Passing Yards 217.8 / 255.8 321.0 / 71.0
Rushing Yards 105.2 / 99.2 158.0 / 27.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.71 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.7 / 0.3
Total Yards 323.0 / 354.9 479.0 / 98.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.5 6.7 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
KC
DEN
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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