Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Jets MIA @ NYJ

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

8-8  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 4:25 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

4-12  |  Home

32
Key Game
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
@
Will McDonald IV
KEY GAME

Will McDonald IV

#9 | Defensive End
Player
Chop Robinson None-None
Will McDonald IV None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
75%
📊
JETS
25%
DOLPHINS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Miami)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

60.8%

Jets Cover

39.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIA By 7-13 points

17.9%

NYJ By 1-6 points

14.8%

NYJ By 7-13 points

12.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.87
MIAMI
19.05
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Loss
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Jets Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.8
B
Sim Jets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.9
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 34 - 10
Sep 29, 2025 NYJ @ MIA 21 - 27
Jan 5, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 20 - 32
Dec 8, 2024 NYJ @ MIA 26 - 32
Dec 17, 2023 NYJ @ MIA 0 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +89.0% more
New York: 1.7 vs Miami: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs Miami: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.1% more
New York: 98.4 vs Miami: 88.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 22.9 20
NYJ Score 19.1 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 20.6 22.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 218.2 / 229.2 257.0 / 199.0
Rushing Yards 98.4 / 88.6 118.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 316.5 / 317.8 375.0 / 334.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.2 6.0 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
NYJ Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
MIA
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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