Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Bills DEN @ BUF

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

10-7  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Jan 12 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

13-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
Tyler Bass None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
31%
📊
BILLS
69%
BRONCOS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.1
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.1 points (Buffalo)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

12.5%

Bills Cover

87.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -16.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

DEN By 1-6 points

6.5%

DEN By 7-13 points

3.6%

BUF By 1-6 points

11.4%

BUF By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
26.23
DENVER
42.35
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
23
DENVER
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.1
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 68.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 BUF @ DEN 30 - 33
Jan 12, 2025 DEN @ BUF 7 - 31
Nov 13, 2023 DEN @ BUF 24 - 22
Dec 19, 2020 BUF @ DEN 48 - 19
Nov 24, 2019 DEN @ BUF 3 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Buffalo: 136.6 vs Denver: 122.8
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Denver: 0.7 vs Buffalo: 0.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.2% more
Denver: 252.2 vs Buffalo: 208.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 26.2 7
BUF Score 42.4 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 22.3 26.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 208.8 / 252.2 261.0 / 145.0
Rushing Yards 136.6 / 122.8 210.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.7 / 0.3
Total Yards 345.3 / 375.0 471.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.8 6.5 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DEN
BUF
DEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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