Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Buccaneers WSH @ TB

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

12-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Jan 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

10-7  |  Home

20
Key Game
Rachaad White
KEY GAME

Rachaad White

#1 | Running Back
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
Rachaad White None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
63%
📊
BUCCANEERS
37%
COMMANDERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.2 points (Tampa Bay)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

12.3%

Buccaneers Cover

87.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -16.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

WSH By 1-6 points

6.4%

WSH By 7-13 points

3.5%

TB By 1-6 points

11.3%

TB By 7-13 points

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.97
WASHINGTON
42.21
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
23
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.2
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 68.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 12, 2025 WSH @ TB 23 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 WSH @ TB 20 - 37
Nov 14, 2021 TB @ WSH 19 - 29
Jan 9, 2021 TB @ WSH 31 - 23
Nov 11, 2018 WSH @ TB 16 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +36.9% more
Tampa Bay: 266.2 vs Washington: 194.4
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
Tampa Bay: 444.5 vs Washington: 344.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +25.6% more
Tampa Bay: 6.6 vs Washington: 5.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.9% more
Tampa Bay: 178.4 vs Washington: 150.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 26.0 23
TB Score 42.2 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 22.6 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 266.2 / 194.4 183.0 / 268.0
Rushing Yards 178.4 / 150.0 101.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 444.5 / 344.4 284.0 / 350.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.6 / 5.2 6.5 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
WSH
TB
WSH
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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