Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Chiefs HOU @ KC

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

10-7  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Jan 18 • 4:30 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

15-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Harrison Butker
KEY GAME

Harrison Butker

#7 | Place kicker
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Harrison Butker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
16%
📊
CHIEFS
84%
TEXANS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Kansas City)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

44.0%

Chiefs Cover

56.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

HOU By 1-6 points

15.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

13.7%

KC By 1-6 points

16.9%

KC By 7-13 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
19.41
HOUSTON
21.52
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
30
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.1
A
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 HOU @ KC 20 - 10
Jan 18, 2025 HOU @ KC 14 - 23
Dec 21, 2024 HOU @ KC 19 - 27
Dec 18, 2022 KC @ HOU 30 - 24
Sep 10, 2020 HOU @ KC 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +96.0% more
Houston: 1.8 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.2% more
Houston: 137.0 vs Kansas City: 75.1
Total Yards (L5) +21.1% more
Houston: 341.3 vs Kansas City: 269.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.8% more
Houston: 5.5 vs Kansas City: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 19.4 14
KC Score 21.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 17.3 14.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 194.2 / 204.3 162.0 / 187.0
Rushing Yards 75.1 / 137.0 50.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.59
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 269.3 / 341.3 212.0 / 336.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.5 4.2 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
HOU
KC
HOU
ML
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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