Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Bears MIN @ CHI

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

0-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Mon, Sep 8 • 8:15 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

0-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Will Reichard None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
VIKINGS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

53.7%

Bears Cover

46.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.8%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.3%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.0%

CHI By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18.15
MINNESOTA
16.85
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
MINNESOTA
24
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ CHI 9 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CHI @ MIN 19 - 17
Sep 8, 2025 MIN @ CHI 27 - 24
Dec 16, 2024 CHI @ MIN 12 - 30
Nov 24, 2024 MIN @ CHI 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Minnesota: 212.2 vs Chicago: 163.6
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
Minnesota: 20.0 vs Chicago: 15.5
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Minnesota: 313.8 vs Chicago: 251.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.1% more
Minnesota: 101.6 vs Chicago: 88.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 18.2 27
CHI Score 16.9 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 20.0 20.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 163.6 / 212.2 198.0 / 134.0
Rushing Yards 88.3 / 101.6 119.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 251.9 / 313.8 317.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 4.8 5.0 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIN
CHI
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
TTL
0% 0-4
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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