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TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

0-0  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

0-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
@
James Pearce Jr.
KEY GAME

James Pearce Jr.

#27 | Linebacker
Player
Riley Dixon None-None
James Pearce Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
FALCONS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

44.3%

Falcons Cover

55.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

TB By 1-6 points

15.7%

TB By 7-13 points

13.8%

ATL By 1-6 points

16.9%

ATL By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
20.1
TAMPA BAY
22.12
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
20
TAMPA BAY
23
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Falcons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 ATL @ TB 29 - 28
Sep 7, 2025 TB @ ATL 23 - 20
Oct 27, 2024 ATL @ TB 31 - 26
Oct 3, 2024 TB @ ATL 30 - 36
Dec 10, 2023 TB @ ATL 29 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Atlanta: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 1.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6 vs Atlanta: 0.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.6% more
Tampa Bay: 6.6 vs Atlanta: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 20.1 23
ATL Score 22.1 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 22.7 23.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 242.1 / 238.4 289.0 / 159.0
Rushing Yards 164.4 / 152.6 69.0 / 101.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 406.5 / 391.0 358.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.6 5.0 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TB
ATL
TB
ML
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-4
100% 4-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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