Home / NFL Projections NFL / Giants @ Commanders NYG @ WSH

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

0-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

0-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
Gunner Olszewski
KEY GAME

Gunner Olszewski

#80 | Wide Receiver
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Gunner Olszewski None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
GIANTS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (New York)
GiantsNYG (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

68.0%

Commanders Cover

32.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NYG -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

NYG By 1-6 points

16.6%

NYG By 7-13 points

19.2%

WSH By 1-6 points

13.2%

WSH By 7-13 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
29.66
NEW YORK
23.13
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
23
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ NYG 29 - 21
Sep 7, 2025 NYG @ WSH 6 - 21
Nov 3, 2024 WSH @ NYG 27 - 22
Sep 15, 2024 NYG @ WSH 18 - 21
Nov 19, 2023 NYG @ WSH 31 - 19
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +64.5% more
Washington: 23.3 vs New York: 14.2
Turnovers (L5) +54.3% more
Washington: 1.8 vs New York: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.5% more
Washington: 130.0 vs New York: 86.4
Total Yards (L5) +33.8% more
Washington: 377.5 vs New York: 282.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYG Score 29.7 6
WSH Score 23.1 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 14.2 25.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 247.4 / 195.6 212.0 / 157.0
Rushing Yards 130.0 / 86.4 220.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 377.5 / 282.1 432.0 / 231.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.0 6.6 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYG
WSH
NYG
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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