Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bengals @ Browns CIN @ CLE

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

0-0  |  Home

16
Key Game
Joe Flacco
KEY GAME

Joe Flacco

#16 | Quarterback
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Joe Flacco None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
📊
BROWNS
100%
BENGALS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Cincinnati)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

60.6%

Browns Cover

39.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CIN -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-6 points

17.0%

CIN By 7-13 points

17.9%

CLE By 1-6 points

14.9%

CLE By 7-13 points

12.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
CINCINNATI
18.45
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
CINCINNATI
24
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bengals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bengals (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 CLE @ CIN 20 - 18
Sep 7, 2025 CIN @ CLE 17 - 16
Dec 22, 2024 CLE @ CIN 6 - 24
Oct 20, 2024 CIN @ CLE 21 - 14
Jan 7, 2024 CLE @ CIN 14 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Cincinnati: 288.2 vs Cleveland: 181.4
First Downs (L5) +31.9% more
Cincinnati: 24.7 vs Cleveland: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +26.9% more
Cincinnati: 380.5 vs Cleveland: 278.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.0% more
Cincinnati: 5.4 vs Cleveland: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 22.2 17
CLE Score 18.5 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 24.7 22.0 / 11.0
Net Passing Yards 181.4 / 288.2 278.0 / 95.0
Rushing Yards 96.9 / 92.3 49.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 278.3 / 380.5 327.0 / 141.0
Turnovers 2.6 / 1.7 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.3 / 5.4 4.6 / 2.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CIN
CLE
CIN
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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