Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Jets PIT @ NYJ

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

0-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-0  |  Home

32
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
0%
📊
JETS
100%
STEELERS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 JetsNYJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

57.2%

Jets Cover

42.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

16.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

17.2%

NYJ By 1-6 points

15.5%

NYJ By 7-13 points

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.88
PITTSBURGH
19.33
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 PIT @ NYJ 34 - 32
Oct 20, 2024 NYJ @ PIT 15 - 37
Oct 2, 2022 NYJ @ PIT 24 - 20
Dec 22, 2019 PIT @ NYJ 10 - 16
Oct 9, 2016 NYJ @ PIT 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
New York: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +27.7% more
New York: 20.1 vs Pittsburgh: 15.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +20.6% more
New York: 231.1 vs Pittsburgh: 191.6
Total Yards (L5) +20.4% more
New York: 336.0 vs Pittsburgh: 279.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 21.9 34
NYJ Score 19.3 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 15.7 23.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 231.1 / 191.6 212.0 / 218.0
Rushing Yards 104.9 / 87.5 182.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 336.0 / 279.1 394.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.0 6.4 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
PIT
NYJ
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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