MIAMI
DOLPHINSMIA
0-0 | Road
8
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
0-0 | Home
33
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jonah Savaiinaea
#71 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Spencer Shrader
#3 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jonah Savaiinaea | None-None |
| Spencer Shrader | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
COLTS
0%
DOLPHINS
--
COLTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Indianapolis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIA By 1-6 points
13.2%
MIA By 7-13 points
10.0%
IND By 1-6 points
16.6%
IND By 7-13 points
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
20.29
MIAMI
Indianapolis
26.81
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
Miami
20
MIAMI
Indianapolis
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colts
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
D
Sim
Colts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 47.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 7, 2025
MIA @ IND
8 - 33
Oct 20, 2024
MIA @ IND
10 - 16
Oct 3, 2021
IND @ MIA
27 - 17
Nov 10, 2019
MIA @ IND
16 - 12
Nov 25, 2018
MIA @ IND
24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+67.8% more
Indianapolis: 174.5
vs
Miami: 104.0
Total Yards (L5)
+22.8% more
Indianapolis: 396.9
vs
Miami: 323.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+15.0% more
Indianapolis: 0.4
vs
Miami: 0.3
Yards Per Play (L5)
+13.0% more
Indianapolis: 5.7
vs
Miami: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
20.3
8
IND Score
26.8
33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.5 / 20.7
27.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards
222.4 / 219.1
262.0 / 133.0
Rushing Yards
174.5 / 104.0
156.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.47 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards
396.9 / 323.2
418.0 / 211.0
Turnovers
1.6 / 1.9
0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play
5.7 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -13.8
ATS +/-: -4.9
IND
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -13.8
ATS +/-: -4.9
IND
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIA
IND
MIA
ML
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
TTL
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
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