Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Jaguars CAR @ JAX

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

0-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

0-0  |  Home

26
Key Game
Devin Lloyd
KEY GAME

Devin Lloyd

#55 | Linebacker
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Devin Lloyd None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
PANTHERS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.4
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.4 points (Jacksonville)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

13.6%

Jaguars Cover

86.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -15.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

CAR By 1-6 points

6.9%

CAR By 7-13 points

4.0%

JAX By 1-6 points

11.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
8.61
CAROLINA
23.98
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
27
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.4
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 CAR @ JAX 10 - 26
Dec 31, 2023 CAR @ JAX 0 - 26
Oct 6, 2019 JAX @ CAR 27 - 34
Sep 13, 2015 CAR @ JAX 20 - 9
Sep 25, 2011 JAX @ CAR 10 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.0% more
Jacksonville: 1.2 vs Carolina: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Carolina: 123.2 vs Jacksonville: 103.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +9.3% more
Carolina: 5.5 vs Jacksonville: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 8.6 10
JAX Score 24.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 19.7 19.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 210.7 / 207.2 178.0 / 142.0
Rushing Yards 103.9 / 123.2 200.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 314.6 / 330.4 378.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.5 6.0 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
CAR
JAX
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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